Playing it Safe Tiger Movement and Livestock Depredation Patterns in Panna Tiger Reserve, Central India

Abstract

The movement of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes is not uncommon anymore. While their presence is superficially tolerated or ignored, it is a consistent cause of concern to the people living in its proximity, due to competing interests in sharing of resources and direct threat to human lives. Carnivores incur energetic costs in the form of restricted activity and having to make spatial and temporal activity adjustments. Humans, on the other hand, face losses from livestock depredation and/or loss of lives. Depredation patterns of livestock by carnivores are associated with a variety of factors including habitat structure as well as movement patterns of carnivores in relation to anthropogenic and livestock activity. Hence, deducing movement patterns of the groups in conflict is an important step in understanding the dynamics of conflict patterns at fine scales. Supplemented by models to predict the probability of conflicts spatially which delineates conflict hotspots, site-specific mitigation measures could be devised. To understand such patterns of carnivore movement and relation to livestock depredation events, I conducted this study in a human-dominated region adjacent to the Critical Tiger Habitat of Panna Tiger Reserve in central India from December 2020 to April 2021, within an area of 200 km2. The broad objective was to model the conflict probability based on the proportion of the human-dominated area used by tigers, its intensity of use and spatio-temporal activity within the area, in response to human disturbances. For this, I used intensive camera trap sampling at fine-scale within grids (1 km x 1 km) across the entire study area. Movement parameters of tigers such as displacement and distance to villages in day and night were also analysed by monitoring two GPS-collared tigers in the study area. Occupancy estimates showed 74% of the sampled area being used by tigers, with the relative abundance of a large bodied wild prey (sambar) as the strongest predictor. In addition, a clear positive trend in the relative abundance index of tigers with distance to villages was observed. The temporal activities of the tigers also showed a significant difference in median activity time, shifting towards the night along with moderate diurnal activity at higher distances from villages. The tigers exhibited both crepuscular and nocturnal activity at close distances to villages. The movement range analyses of the tigers using camera traps showed the study area being used by 17 tigers, with 9 of them being adults (>3 years of age). Fixed Kernel Density home-range estimates of the two GPS-collared tigers showed a considerable proportion of their home range areas falling within village boundaries (10%) and an average of 16% of all GPS locations of the tigers fell within 0-100 metres from villages. Despite such high exploratory use of areas within and close distances to villages by sub-adults, there were relatively low incidences of conflict between the tigers and villagers in the study area. Finally, to assess the extent of risk and predict the probability of livestock depredation in the area, Generalized Linear Models were used. The best-fit model indicated a significant negative effect of distance to villages and highway to the probability of livestock depredation. Linear intrusions through highway and forest trails from villages allow easy access to livestock and herders for the utilization of the multi-use buffer areas of the Reserve as well as the tigers to come in proximity to settlements. Corralling of livestock in the night, avoiding free-ranging and grazing of livestock in the identified conflict hotspots, incentivization of alternate source of livelihood by strengthening the institutions such as Eco-Development Committees, along with continuous monitoring of tigers which range close to human settlements are discussed as some of the important measures which can be adopted to decrease the interfaces leading to tiger-human conflict in Panna Tiger Reserve.