Living on the Edge: Assessing spatio-temporal dynamics of Human-Elephant Interactions in Udalguri, Assam

Abstract

Landscape transformation due to expanding agriculture and infrastructure in Asia has led to extensive habitat loss and fragmentation for Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), intensifying human-elephant conflict (HEC) across their range. India, home to nearly 60% of the global Asian elephant population, faces a rising conservation challenge as elephants increasingly venture into human-dominated landscapes, resulting in frequent crop raiding, property damage, and casualties on both sides. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of HEC in Udalguri district, Assam, a critical elephant landscape bordering Bhutan. Using 13 years (2011–2024) of data obtained from forest departments and validated through ground truthing and community interaction. We quantified seasonal trends in human casualties, property damage, crop raiding, and elephant mortality to identify conflict hotspots. A total of 221 human casualties (144 deaths, 77 injuries) and 96 elephant deaths (14.5% due to electrocution) were recorded, with monsoon and post-monsoon showing the highest conflict intensity. Males were disproportionately affected in human casualties and elephant mortality. Crop raiding was most frequent in the post-monsoon, with paddy being the primary target. Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) analyses revealed significant effects of season, crop type, and sex on HEC patterns. Conflict hotspots were concentrated near Bornadi Wildlife Sanctuary (BWS) and Khalingduar Reserved Forest (KRF), highlighting the role of forest edges, paddy fields, and tea estates as high-risk zones. Our findings emphasize the need for adaptive, seasonally informed management strategies that integrate habitat restoration, corridor protection, cross-border coordination, and community-based interventions. Reducing anthropogenic threats, improving compensation schemes, and enhancing early warning systems are critical for fostering coexistence. The study offers a robust empirical foundation for designing region-specific mitigation strategies and reinforces the urgency of transboundary, multi-stakeholder approaches to secure the future of Asian elephants in Northeast India.