Spatial analysis of livestock predation by leopards in the Greater Gir Landscape

Abstract

Data on livestock kill by leopard were collected from the districts of Junagadh, Amreli, Gir Somnath and Bhavnagar, accounting for 711 villages between 2012 to 2016. These data were further translated into English, digitized and spatially mapped in GIS. We obtained remotely sensed as well as spatial covariate layers of forest cover, refuge patches, drainages and nigh-light intensity. We conducted a fixed Kernel analysis of spatially explicit livestock predation events at the village resolution to obtain a consolidate “predation risk map” by leopards of the landscape and used it for subsequent analysis. The tehsils of Talala, Sutrapada, Kodinar, Visavadar, Palitana, Gir Gadhada, Junagadh, Una and Mendarada recorded highest livestock predation by leopards. A temporal increasing trend was observed for number of leopard-predation events as well as in the spatial extent of predations. However, the intensity (number of livestock kills/village/year) of livestock predation did not show any increasing trend, this suggests that though there is an increase in the geographical extent of conflict, the intensity in a given area has remained constant. This could be interpretate as geographical range exapansion of the leopard without increasing its density within occupied areas. Proximity to wildlife habitats, proportion of wildlife area and urbanization enhanced chances of leopard predation. A significant deficit between the market rate and compensated amount for leopard predation was observed with an increasing trend. As a management strategy we recommend a revision of compensation rates to match the market price and an efficient system to pay compensation promptly. Improved husbandary practices and, as well as managing leopard density below social carrying capacity is recommended. This would help maintaining tolerance towards leopards under an increasingly conflict scenario. ii