Spatial analysis of livestock predation by lions in the Greater Gir landscape

Abstract

Data on livestock kill by carnivores (lion and leopard) were collected from the districts of Junagadh, Amreli, Gir Somnath and Bhavnagar, accounting for 914 villages between 2012-13 to 2016-17. These data were further translated into English, digitized and spatially mapped in GIS. We obtained remotely sensed as well as spatial covariate layers of forest cover, lion refuge patches, drainages and nigh-light intensity. We conducted a fixed Kernel analysis of spatially explicit livestock predation events at the village resolution to obtain a consolidate “predation risk map” of the landscape on a relative scale and used it for subsequent analysis. The tehsils of Jafrabad, Gir gadhada, Amreli, Dhari, Khambha and Rajula recorded highest livestock predation by lions. A temporal increasing trend was observed for number of lion-predation events as well as in the spatial extent of predations. More importantly the intensity (number of livestock kills/village/year) of livestock predation showed an increasing trend (R2= 0.73, P= 0.06, slope = 15 % (SE 0.05)), this suggests not only an increase in the spatial extent of the conflict but also a substantial increase in the magnitude of conflict within the same spatial extent. A logistic regression, given by: Ln Odds Ratio (occurrence of lion predation) = -0.16 + 0.76 * distance to forest + 0.54* distance to lion habitat; (Wald’s p < 0.05). The increasing trend in the extant and intensity of livestock predation by lion was indicative of an increasing lion population but of concern in maintaining the tolerance of local communities towards lions co-existing with them. A significant deficit between the market rate and compensated amount for lion predation (R² = 0.74, p=0.06) was observed with an increasing trend. As a management strategy we recommend a revision of compensation rates to match the market price and an efficient system to pay compensation promptly. Improved husbandry practices and, as well as managing lion density below social carrying capacity is recommended. This would help maintaining tolerance towards lion under an increasingly conflict scenario.