Can tigers (Panthera tigris) survive in human-dominated landscape of India : a case study of human-tiger interaction around bhopal city, M.P.

Abstract

In India, wild tiger numbers have gone from 1411 (SE range 1,165 to 1,675) in 2006 to 3682 (SE 243) in 2022 (Status of Tigers in India, 2023). Tigers are known for their large home ranges and great dispersal distances, and the National Tiger Conservation Authority estimated that approximately 40% of all tigers in India live outside the reserves in unprotected lands. These unprotected lands are mosaics of multiple-use forests and agricultural fields surrounding villages, towns, and cities. With a growing human population and its need for expanding urbanization, agriculture and other land uses have implication on forest. The land-use change presents enormous problems to animal conservation, particularly for wide-ranging species like tigers (Panthera tigris), whose migration and habitat usage are being disturbed by developing urban infrastructure. One of the most significant difficulties is the fragmentation of ecosystems created by linear infrastructure such as roads, trains, and highways, which limit communication between important green spaces. The study is focused on urban landscapes of Bhopal city, a city with 2.6 million people, placed at Vindhyan Hills and surrounded by the dry deciduous forest of Bhopal Forest Circle. The study area focuses on the urban-rural gradient, including the built-up area of Bhopal, peri-urban and rural/wilderness area of the territorial forest of Bhopal, Sehore, Obedullahganj, and Raisen. The study uses a bio-social approach to understand the tigers and prey surviving in these dynamic areas on one end and people’s attitudes and perceptions to understand social factors shaping coexistence in these landscapes. The basic questions of the study are what is the extend of green spaces available for tigers in this landscape? What is the available prey-base and how tigers are utilizing available prey base, how animals and people share spaces, and how people’s attitude and perception shape coexistence in these dynamic areas. As the first part of the study, this study aims to evaluate habitat suitability and identify potential tiger habitats across five districts of central India (Sehore, Raisen, Bhopal, Rajgrah and Vidisha). We generated land use and forest density maps using LANDSAT 8 satellite imagery for 2022 by adopting the Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) method. Subsequently, we developed a Habitat Suitability Model (HSM) for tigers using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) within a Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework. The model Integrated land use and forest density map, anthropogenic variables (proximity to water, roads, railways, and human settlements and three topographic variables: slope, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and aspects. Each thematic layer was weighted based on ground data and secondary ecological reference data. The results of land use and forest density maps showed that the agriculture class dominates by covering (67.32 %; 21,097 km sq), high, moderate, and open dense forest covers (20.04 %; 6093.44 km sq), and settlement (5%;1614.66 km sq). The results of the accuracy evaluation showed a high-quality classification with an overall accuracy of 93.3% and a kappa coefficient (k) of 0.93, indicating strong agreement between the classified and reference data set. Habitat suitability analysis showed highly suitable class encompasses approximately 2,609.27 km sq, moderately suitable areas covered around 2909.09 km sq, and low suitability areas cover 4547.34 km sq. The overall result indicates that areas with high-density forest cover in Raisen and Sehore exhibited the highest habitat suitability across the study region. For developing an understanding of city green spaces and tiger movement, we assessed land-use/land-cover (LULC) patterns and their implications for tiger space-use near city fringes adjacent to the Ratapani Tiger Reserve. Using Landsat-8 imagery (30m resolution, 2022), supervised maximum likelihood classification in ArcGIS 10.8 (Kappa=0.88) identified settlements (37%), agriculture (30%), urban green spaces (25%), and waterbodies (8%) across 414 km². Of 535 digitized green patches (65 cm Google Earth Pro), 248 exceeded 1 ha, forming connected networks via riparian and institutional areas. Tiger presence was evaluated via systematic sign surveys (Nov 2021–Jul 2022) across standardized trails (45.6 km total) in urban green spaces of Kaliasot-kerwa, supplemented by All India Tiger Estimation 2022 camera traps. Tigers occupied 19 grids in southern Bhopal (Kaliasot-Kerwa belt), with encounter rates of 0.88–1.82 signs/km (winter mean: 1.45 ±0.33; summer: 0.93 ±0.06), indicating territorial use influenced by prey, water, and human factors. Four individuals were photo-captured in sites like MANIT and WALMI. As part of a broader effort to understand tiger survival in an urban landscape, we conducted extensive field surveys across Bhopal and a 30 km buffer zone to assess tiger presence, prey abundance, and human-wildlife interactions. Here, we present findings on the relationship between prey distribution, composition, and abundance and tiger diet across urban and peri-urban mosaics. Prey abundance was estimated using 40 and 12 line transects in the forest of Bhopal Forest Circle and Urban green spaces (2019- 2022), respectively. In the forest, 14 prey species were recorded, with wild pig (Sus scrofa, 83.33%) and peafowl (Pavo cristatus, 66.66%) being the most frequently encountered, whereas cattle (Bos taurus, 37.5%) and nilgai (Boselaphus tragocamelus, 30%) dominated urban areas. Mean prey abundance was highest for goats (Capra aegagrus hircus, 32 individuals per transect) and wild boar (Sus scrofa, 24.3) in the forest circle, whereas cattle, goats (14), and blackbuck (Antilope cervicapra, 10) were most prevalent in urban green spaces. Tiger diet analysis, based on morphological identification of prey hair in 227 scat samples collected from Bhopal City, the Bhopal-Ratapani connecting forest, and Ratapani Tiger Reserve, revealed 19 prey species, with nilgai (17.62%), cattle (15.41%), and Chowsingha (Tetracerus quadricornis, 14.09%) being the most frequently consumed. While prey species were relatively evenly distributed, significant variation in dietary composition across landscapes underscores the adaptability of tigers to urban environments. Bhopal exemplifies how heterogeneous urban matrices sustain biodiversity connectivity. Protecting these corridors via integrated planning ensures human-wildlife harmony, ecosystem services, and Central India’s tiger landscape resilience. To understand the human dimensions the study examines how people and tigers are sharing spaces. We investigated the spatial-temporal dynamics of tiger (Panthera tigris) coexistence within the human-modified landscape of the Bhopal-Ratapani Connecting Forest in Madhya Pradesh, India. Utilizing camera trap data collected in 2020, we examined the activity patterns of tigers, co-predators, prey species (wild and domestic), and humans to assess spatial-temporal overlap and segregation. Our results reveal significant temporal partitioning among these groups, with tigers exhibiting primarily nocturnal behaviour to minimize overlap with human activity. Prey species display diverse strategies, including diurnal, nocturnal, and crepuscular patterns. The same has also been depicted in the Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling plot. ANOVA analysis confirms significant Spatial variation (F=4.2, p<0.003) and temporal variation (F = 4.22, p<0.01) among the focal groups. Even the study at Bhopal-Ratapani Landscape level states similar temporal adaptation of tigers and co-predators. However, the ANOVA results state clear temporal variation among Tigers and co-predators in space use but no significant difference in spatial context such as Bhopal-Sehore, Ratapani core and Obedullahganj territorial stating the homogenous landscape availability. These findings underscore the importance of temporal niche partitioning in facilitating tiger persistence in urban-influenced environments and inform targeted conservation strategies aimed at mitigating human- wildlife conflict and promoting coexistence.The low conflict levels, timely compensatory practices, and non-retaliatory attitude of the local community are playing an important role in sharing space with tigers without any conflict. The absence of Human-tiger conflict is one of the important factors promoting acceptance within local communities. These findings highlight the role of human-modified landscapes in shaping space availability, prey availability & utilization by large carnivores, and acceptance by local communities to share space with tigers, emphasizing the urgent need to reconsider the role of urban green spaces and consider wildlife as part of urban planning to mitigate human-wildlife conflicts and ensure long-term conservation.